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高盛集团的经济学家说，中国隐性地方政府债务已膨胀至经济规模的一半以上。他们说，政府需要灵活处理这一问题，因为土地销售放缓已经给政府收入带来了压力。
这些经济学家在一份报告中写道，截至去年年底，地方政府融资平台的总债务从2013年的16万亿元增至约53万亿元(合8.2万亿美元)。这相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的52%左右，高于官方未偿政府债务。
地方政府融资平台是政府借债的工具，而不会出现在资产负债表上，但在金融市场看来，它与政府债务一样。
今年早些时候有一些迹象表明，随着经济复苏，政府在削减债务方面取得进展，为应对金融风险提供了空间。如今，经济增长面临更多不利因素，包括消费者不愿消费、导致土地需求下滑的楼市危机、电力短缺和供应链中断，市场正在寻找重新考虑鹰派政策立场的信号。
以Maggie Wei为首的经济学家在报告中写道，随着土地销售放缓，“地方政府可能需要发行更多官方债券，提高地方政府融资的灵活性，以支持整体经济增长”。
土地销售是地方政府的主要收入来源，随着中国恒大集团危机的恶化，土地销售已经放缓。为了弥补土地销售收入减少留下的资金缺口，高盛建议政府将2022年的债券配额较今年的3.65万亿元增加逾5000亿元。
高盛经济学家还指出:
地方融资平台的债务大多集中在建筑、交通和工业集团行业，这三个子行业的债务占地方政府融资平台总债务的近40%；
在所有省份中，江苏的借款规模最高，2020年约为8万亿元；
天津、北京、四川、贵州和甘肃是地方经济产出中杠杆率最高的省份；
当地平台发行的债券中约60%用于偿还2020-2021年到期的债务，而不是用于新的投资。
中国没有对地方政府隐性债务的官方统计，因为从技术上讲，这是违法的，不同机构的私人估算也存在很大差异。
标普全球评级(S&P Global Ratings)在2019年的一项估计是人民币20万亿元，荣鼎咨询(Rhodium Group)在同一年的另一项估计是人民币41.2万亿至51.7万亿元。根据一家政府智库的数据，2020年中国有14.8万亿元的隐性债务。
高盛的计算是基于对2000多家地方政府融资平台的有息债务(包括债券和银行贷款)报表的分析。
