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新东方在线涨近10%创新高 东方甄选GMV接近李佳琦两年前水平
财经12月8日讯（编辑 马轶杰）新东方在线(01797HK)股价再度刷新历史新高，收涨957%，报4635港元，总市值逾460亿港元。
当下，直播电商业务的高速增长仍是市场看好新东方在线的直接原因。
消息面上，海通证券发布报告称，自2022年6月以来，东方甄选抖音号累计GMV达411亿元。而国海证券的研究显示，东方甄选目前已连续三个月日均GMV超过3000万元。
照此趋势计算，东方甄选未来一年GMV突破百亿已是大概率事件。而据财通证券测算，新东方在线直播电商业务的总GMV预计将在2023年达到9994亿，并带来约267亿的收入。
作为对比，据阿里财报和《2020年直播电商行业白皮书》显示，直播电商一哥李佳琦2020年全年带货脱水GMV大约近130亿元。
《三体》动画来了！业内人士称将是B站增新拉活新机会
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出圈近半年之后，新东方在线旗下东方甄选在直播电商方向上的转型持续成功，并未出现此前市场担忧的“昙花一现”局面。而近期其矩阵化的品牌策略和自营布局，也让市场对其长期发展的信心提升，对二级市场股价形成支撑。
但需要注意的是，在直播热度、转化率等核心指标上。东方甄选单边高速增长的趋势正在面临挑战，近期出现波动。
据海通证券的研究，截至12月1日的当周，东方甄选主账号，日均观看人次1299万人，环比前一周增长268%。但从长期趋势来看，已经出现了持续回落的态势。
而被寄予厚望的新账号矩阵中，美丽生活账号截至12月1日当周的日均观看人数为389万人，环比上周增 长7%，新增粉丝量09万人，环比仅增长1%，转化率也下降了024%个百分点。新开设的东方甄选将进酒账号，截至12月1日当周，日均GMV环比减少11%，新增粉丝数则环比减少了47%。
流量是直播电商变现的基础，观看人数则代表了消费者的粘性和认同，两者对最终电商业务的GMV都有着决定性的影响。
平安证券的研究认为，市场持续看好新东方在线，主要基于政策和业务的负面出清，而后直播带货业务带来了从0到1的新增量，转型初具成效后让市场看到了空间，以及未来电商业务横向复制到其他平台的持续扩张也是看点之一。
总体来看，市场目前仍然紧盯粉丝数、观看人数、GMV等高频数据，来动态评估新东方在线的投资价值。而东方甄选在高速增长的过程中，其实也已在不断逼近行业头部标杆，即将遇到隐形天花板。未来数据层面一旦出现增长乏力，也可能存在市场预期转向的风险。
带动新项目投资超3300亿，试点范围或进一步扩大，未来保租房REITS大有可为！
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