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平地一声惊雷，硅谷银行在上周末宣布倒闭破产。这只金融市场的“黑天鹅”不但让美国股市以及债市大幅震荡，更让即将迎来3月货币政策会议的美联储头痛。事实上，在上周末硅谷银行“爆雷”之前，市场对于美联储将在3月货币政策会议上重新加息50个基点的预期已有所升温。但硅谷银行破产事件一发生，现在华尔街的各大机构已经将争论的焦点转移到美联储是否还将在3月加息，甚至是美联储是否存在降息的可能性上。
针对此次硅谷银行破产倒闭事件，多家机构以及分析人士都将矛头对准了美联储。认为正是因为美联储为抗击通胀，而选择连续大幅加息，导致利率上升，较长期的美国国债以及抵押贷款证券市场价值因此大幅缩水。
当前，美国银行业以及金融市场中的惊慌情绪仍未消散。尽管美国财政部、美联储以及美国联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)已经发布了联合声明，称将保证储户存款的兑付，但依然难以消解市场担忧。为应对突如其来的流动性风险，3月12日，美联储宣布推出一项新的预防银行挤兑的融资工具——银行期限资金计划(BTFP)。
美联储在声明中提出，“为了支持美国企业和家庭，美国联邦储备委员会周日宣布，将向符合条件的储蓄机构提供额外资金，以确保银行有能力满足所有储户的需求。这一举措将增强银行系统保护存款的能力，并确保向经济持续提供货币和信贷。美联储准备应对任何可能出现的流动性压力。”BTFP将成为高质量证券的额外流动性来源，消除了机构在压力时期迅速出售这些证券的压力。而美国财政部将从外汇稳定基金中拨出250亿美元作为BTFP的支持。
当流动性风险在一定程度上降低后，市场便更加关注美联储是否会传递出有关后续加息节奏的新信号。毕竟一周前美联储主席鲍威尔在出席国会听证会时，还发表了十分“鹰”派的讲话，称美联储的加息幅度可能超过此前预期。并警告说，让通胀率回到2%的过程还有“很长的路要走”，体现出美联储继续收紧货币政策以抗击通胀的决心。在“鹰”派消息的推动下，美联储重新扩大加息幅度至50个基点也被纳入市场预期。
然而，当前美联储面对的情况已经出现了大幅度的转变。相比于让通胀回到政策目标，如何安抚市场的恐慌情绪以及疏解可能发生的由硅谷银行破产引发的连锁反应，可能更加紧迫。对于美联储而言，无论在3月的货币政策会议上宣布怎样的货币政策调整方案，都可能刺激到市场的神经，导致金融市场发生显著波动。
当前美联储存在以下几种选择：第一种是顶住压力继续加息，目前最有可能的加息幅度是25个基点；第二种是提前按下暂停键，在3月先按兵不动，根据后续情况再作出调整；第三种则是直接降息。而这个选择也是三种选择中最为激进的，当前市场分析机构中持有第三种观点的并不多，大多数机构的观点集中在第一种选择上。全球最大的资产管理公司贝莱德的策略师在一份报告中表示，尽管银行业的压力正在削弱投资者信心，收紧金融环境，但美联储将需要继续加息，以继续抗击高通胀。
一直以来，美联储都表示将依据经济数据对货币政策进行调整。而在当前的情况下，已经出炉的美国2月非农就业数据以及2月消费者物价指数(CPI)是否还对美联储作出3月货币政策决议拥有关键性作用需要打上一个问号。一方面是仍然高企的通胀和紧张的劳动力市场；另一方面则是动荡不安的美国银行业和流动性风险，美联储在3月货币政策会议上将陷入两难选择。
数据显示，美国2月非农就业岗位增加了31.1万个，平均时薪增速为0.2%，而失业率则从1月的3.4%上升到3.6%。而最新公布的美国2月消费者物价指数(CPI)数据则让情况变得更加复杂。美国2月CPI同比上涨6%，连续第8个月下滑，并且创下2021年9月以来新低。美国2月核心CPI同比上涨5.5%，创下2021年12月以来最小涨幅。值得注意的是，从通胀的角度看，美国2月CPI继续下滑，但依然处于6%的高位。按照此前的预期，为抗击通胀，即便美联储不加息50个基点，也会选择继续加息25个基点。
然而，当前如果美联储继续坚持其加息计划，市场担忧可能会有更多的银行陷入倒闭风暴之中。但与此同时，有分析人士认为，如果美联储暂停加息，甚至为缓解当前的流动性风险、稳定金融市场开始降息，可能会令美国的通胀问题变得更加持久，甚至引发更多的不确定性。
从目前的情况看，由于美国监管机构及时干预，市场的恐慌情绪已有所缓解。再加上当前美国的通胀依然具有黏性，美联储选择继续加息25个基点的可能性正在变得越来越大。
在即将召开的美联储3月货币政策会议上，美联储除了会公布最新利率决议外，同时还会更新对美国经济未来走势的预测。在当前硅谷银行出现危机的背景下，美联储作出的利率决议将更加受到关注。如果美联储选择暂停加息，预计将给美国金融市场带来不小的震荡。
英国公布新财政预算案 推出多项就业“组合拳” 民众却不买账
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