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周一(12月18日)亚市盘中，英镑兑美元低位小幅反弹，最新交投于1.3330一线。据彭博社报导，对于英镑交易商而言本周又将迎来一个关键时刻：他们将首次了解到，随着退欧谈判进入可能更为复杂的贸易谈判阶段，英镑未来可能会如何发展。
据悉，英国首相特蕾莎·梅(Theresa may)周二将与内阁大臣举行会晤，商讨英国未来与欧盟之间的贸易关系，这可能会让英镑变得脆弱。与此同时，欧盟委员会计划在周三公布其在这一问题上的最新立场。
此前，本月早些时候英国下议院就“退出欧盟法案”第七修正案进行投票表决，结果修正案以4票优势涉险通过。11名保守党议员“倒戈”，酿成了英国首相特雷莎·梅上台以来最大的立法失败。而本周英国议会就将投票表决是否接受与欧盟的最新协议，同时决定提交英国议会投票的退欧法案中是否写入正式退欧日期。
目前，包括德国总理默克尔(Angela Merkel)在内的各国领导人都承认，英国下一阶段的贸易谈判可能将比此前的第一阶段谈判更加艰难。
英国广播公司（BBC）分析表示，特蕾莎·梅在2018年面临的挑战是如何让她的党派以及整个国家在接下来的“脱欧”谈判中保持一致。为了让“脱欧”取得实质性的进展，英国不得已在谈判的第一阶段做出很大让步，这已经引起了英国国内一些强硬“脱欧”派的反对。在未来的谈判中，英国如果继续做出让步，势必会招来更多的反对。
不少市场分析师认为，梅在接下来的日子里将会发现英国脱欧谈判日益困难。其中一个主要问题是英国金融服务业的未来。由于准入许可限制，行业机会减少，因此一些公司将选择把在英业务迁往欧洲大陆。
而对于英镑走势而言，则无疑将面临更多的不确定性。目前，英镑是本月迄今表现最为糟糕的G10货币，其兑美元月内已下跌了1.6%。
荷兰合作银行(Rabobank International)外汇策略主管Jane Foley表示，“这些都将成为英镑走势的风向标——无论是特蕾莎梅政府可能面临更为动荡的局面，还是与欧盟关系的紧张程度。谈判结果将是特别关键的。”
Foley表示，支持英国退欧的强硬派人士可能会选择在本周的内阁会议上发难。她表示，“英镑汇率仍有溢价，尤其是考虑到英国硬退欧的风险。在接下来的两个月里，汇率走势将会定下基调。”
值得一提的是，除了退欧方面的消息外，本周英国方面可能推动英镑走势的数据还包括周四的英国消费者信心指数、周五的英国GDP和经常账数据。此外，投资者还需留意英国央行行长卡尼(Mark Carney)与其他英国央行官员周三在英国议会财政委员会就英国退欧问题发表的最新评论。英国央行上周四维持利率不变，并保持了较为谨慎的货币政策立场。
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