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上周四（3月22日）英国央行如期保持利率不变，市场大部分分析预期其将在5月份的下次货币政策会议后宣布升息。但Business Insider周一（3月26日）发表报道称，市场可能有所错判。
英国央行在去年11月自金融危机以来首次升息后，大部分时间都在暗示可能会在2018年近一步升息。大部分专家都曾预期这会在今年年底才会实现，但英国央行货币政策委员会（MPC）在2月份异常乐观的声明令这一时间预期提前至5月份。
3月份的决议似乎也印证了这一点，两名票委投票立即升息，英银也表示“在可预见时期内持续收紧货币政策是恰当的”。
然而，根据债券市场权威Mohamed ElErian的分析，有迹象表明5月份将基准利率由目前的0.5%升至0.75%还远未能确定。
“如果忽略投票中的分歧，实际上委员会选择不像去年那样明确暗示近期内升息。”Pantheon Macroeconomics首席英国经济学家Samuel Tombs表示。他认为，委员会声明中的措辞远不如去年9月份那样直接。
“回顾11月份升息前的9月份会议，委员会明确”将在未来数月内升息”。此次却没有给出类似的言论。” Tombs在发送给客户的报告中写道。
Pantheon的报告继续分析称，措辞改变的主要原因在于最近的经济数据与英银2月份时的预期不符。比如低于预期的PMI值、趋弱的零售数据以及不及预期的CPI通胀。
这些都导致Tombs得出英国央行在5月份升息可能性低于目前市场定价的80%的结论。他认为，英国央行可能要等到8月份再做此决定。
另一个导致人们质疑英银5月份升息的原因在于此次决议的构成。两位投票升息的委员被广泛认为是该行最为鹰派的票委。
Ian McCafferty和Michael Saunders也曾在2017年6月份提出异议。
从历史来看，英国央行通常会在公布通胀报告之时才会变更货币政策，这样行长卡尼就可以在随后的媒体会中与公众沟通决议背后的原因。
而5月份之后，英国央行会在8月份公布通胀报告。这与Pantheon Macroeconomics的预期相符。
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