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在上周五的外汇市场上，美元呈大幅下跌的走势，美元指数最高上涨到97.12，最低下跌到96.39，收盘在96.46。欧美最高上涨到1.1420，最低下跌到1.1320，收盘在1.1413。
美元指数短线加速下滑，因美联储副主席克拉里达称美联储政策正在越来越接近中性利率水平，保持中性利率水平“是合理的”，这令市场开始重新思考美联储加息前景。随着美元急跌，主要非美货币大举反弹。鲍威尔尽管对总体经济前景表示乐观，但也列举了2019年经济增长所面临的三大潜在挑战：海外需求脚步放缓，国内财政刺激效应消退，以及先前美联储加息所产生的滞后经济影响，虽然这不会影响12月加息的概率，但让人不得不开始考虑这样一个问题，那就是美联储明年还会加息几次。
摩根士丹利全球首席外汇策略师Hans Redeker近日在报告中称，目前美元已经见顶，随着信贷利差走阔、股市下跌，且主权债券收益率在通胀减速、油价缩水之际开始下行，美元将走软。关于英镑，据彭博报道，至少有20名英国保守党议员已经公开表示，他们要么已经提交，要么将会提交对首相特雷莎•梅的不信任信函。此外，疑欧派保守党议员Steve Baker据悉已告知同僚，他认为正式对特里莎•梅表示“不信任”的议员数量已经达到门槛。
另一方面，意大利总理孔特寻求在该国2019年预算问题上与欧盟合作的希望则提振欧元。布鲁塞尔方面之前否决了意大利的预算。而英镑兑欧元在经历了约25个月来最糟糕的一天后短暂反弹，因英国首相特雷莎梅的脱欧协议草案获得了一些关键脱欧派的支持。
从技术上来看,美指上周五反弹在97.15之下遇阻，下跌在96.35之上受到支持，收盘在96.46，意味着美元短线下跌后有可能保持反弹的走势。如果美指今天反弹在96.20之上受到支持，后市反弹的目标将会指向96.95—97.40。今天美指短线阻力在96.65—96.70，短线重要阻力96.90—96.95。今天美指短线支持在96.20—96.25，短线重要支持在95.90—95.95。欧美上周五回调在1.1320之上受到支持，上涨在1.1420之下遇阻，收盘在1.1413，意味着欧美短线上涨后有可能保持回调的走势。如果欧美今天上涨在1.1450之下遇阻，后市回调的目标将会指向1.1350—1.1290。今天欧美短线阻力在1.1445—1.1450，短线重要阻力在1.1480—1.1485。今天欧美短线支持在1.1380—1.1385，短线重要支持在1.1350—1.1355。
美元今天短线以逢低做多为主，破位止损，有盈利30个点以上就设好止赢，在美国开市前撤出所有没有成交的挂单。本策略适合保证金，实盘可作参考。
美元指数：可以在96.9—96.20的区间下限买入，有效破位30个点止损，目标在区间的上限。
欧元/美元：可以在1.14501.1350的区间上限卖出，有效破位40个点止损，目标在区间的下限。
英镑/美元：可以在1.28851.2770的区间上限卖出，有效破位40个点止损，目标在区间的下限。
美元/瑞郎：可以在1.00600.9960的区间上限卖出，有效破位40个点止损，目标在区间的下限。
美元/日元：可以在113.45—113.45的区间上限卖出，有效破位40个点止损，目标在区间的下限。
澳元/美元：可以在0.73600.7280的区间下限买入，有效破位40点止损，目标在区间的上限。
美元/加元：可以在1.31951.3125的区间上限卖出，有效破位35个点止损，目标在区间的下限。
黄金：可以在1227.001214.00的区间上限卖出，有效破位6美元止损，目标在区间的下限。
白银：可以在14.50—14.25的区间上限卖出，有效破位0.10美元止损，目标在区间的下限。
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