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——本已饱受美联储加息预期悲观的打击，周五公布的美国经济数据不佳，对于美元多头来说可谓“雪上加霜”，周一(5月2日)亚市开盘后，美元指数跌破93大关，创8个月新低。贵金属多头高歌猛进，牛头再度高昂，金、银价格双双突破前期高点。
鉴于通胀低下、就业增长和借贷成本低廉等良好的消费环境，过去三个季度美国家庭开支增长放慢令经济学家们感到惊讶。或许在薪资增长加快的情况下，美国消费者才会更加放心地消费，从而推动美国经济走出两年来的最差表现。
据《华尔街日报(博客,微博)》称，美国通胀已连续47个月位于美联储2%的目标下。另外，虽然美国劳动力市场状况趋紧，但个人收入增长幅度并不十分强劲，并造成个人支出的增幅相对温和。
货币政策预期落空抬升贵金属价格重心
4月份金、银市场的表现堪称“惊艳”。其中黄金单月上行4.9%，一举扭转3月份的区间震荡态势，上涨幅度较大的白银单月大涨逾15%，是过去30个月来的单月最大上涨幅度。
上海一家期货私募研究部负责人表示：“近期贵金属市场的良好表现，一方面是美元疲弱，另一方面也受避险情绪的提振。”美国联邦储备比较模糊的信息让市场对美国联邦储备短时间加息的预测期望降温，加上周边股票市场等金融市场的颓势，提振避险资产贵金属的表现。
金瑞期货预测认为，由于利率抬升的预测期望仍是目前阻碍黄金白银上行的主要因素，后期一系列经济数据的发布也许会为加息的进程提供一定线索。
Adrian Day资产管理公司总裁Adrian Day表示：“由于美元下跌，黄金因空头回补和观望者介入而狂涨。”
CMC市场高级策略师Colin Ciesznski表示，伴随弱势美元的是由于全球货币政策变化其他货币上超，黄金的技术面明显改善。“黄金的大涨突破了之前形成的头肩形态，这是牛市表现。”
香港利昌金铺(Lee Cheong Gold Dealers)交易主管Ronald Leung表示：“金价上涨的主因是因为此前市场预计日本央行会采取更多的宽松政策，但结果没有，美元继续走软。”
凯投宏观分析师Simona Gambarini表示：“所有贵金属均大幅上扬，受助于疲弱的美国GDP数据以及日本央行按兵不动拖累美元走软，”“如果美元开始反弹，金价可能会回调，但我们仍然看好金市。”
美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）4月30日公布的周度报告显示，截至4月26日当周，随着白银飙升至11个月高位，对冲基金和基金经理增持Comex白银净多头头寸至纪录高位。
此外，对冲基金还增持了Comex黄金期权和期货净多头头寸至3年半高位，并减持了铜净空头头寸。
数据显示，截至4月26日当周，COMEX白银投机净多头头寸增加3907手至70220手，为2006年数据公布以来最大。
而反映避险需求的黄金ETF基金则继续减仓。经济数据显示，到29日，全球最大的黄金ETF基金SPDR持有的黄金为804.14吨，较3月底的年内高点已累计减持约20吨。
对此，世界黄金协会的报告认为，目前驱动投资者进入黄金市场的主要因素仍是负利率以及其他市场的区间震荡加剧。“越来越多的中央银行实施负利率政策，历史上的低利率时期，黄金的回报率通常是长线平均水平的两倍多。”报告指出，长线来看，负利率政策也许将导致中央银行和投资者之类的需求呈现结构性的增长。
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