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近期市场上发生了一件“奇怪”的事。尽管按照以往惯例，美元和国际原油价格的走势通常呈现相反趋势，但是近期却是：国际原油价格的上涨推动着美元上涨，反之亦然。
那么这种情况将会是可持续的吗？答案是从许多方面来看或许是这样。去年美联储的鹰派立场驱动着美元指数相对于其它货币以及大宗商品价格强劲上涨。而如今却是，国际原油价格的上涨驱动了美国通胀预期以及美国长期利率的走高，而这一切最终将会“迫使”美联储加快加息步伐，从而也为美元提供了支撑。
然而，这对于支撑美元又有多重要？
对于新兴市场货币来讲，地方债务资金流入的套期保值非常重要。在美联储加息步伐放缓的情况下，通胀预期上升所驱动的美元上涨对于新兴市场货币来讲，极具破坏性。
对于像欧元以及日元等低收益G10货币，德意志银行并不认为当前市场对利率的重新定价为美元提供了实质性支撑。欧元和日元对于短期实际利率更为敏感，而短期利率反过来又取决于美联储的鹰派立场以及美国经济数据增长情况。
近期市场对实际利率的“公允价值”的重新定价已经致使欧元兑美元跌至1.10水平，德意志银行有关欧元兑美元的年底目标点位为1.05，但是其同时也谨慎的认为，国际原油价格的走高以及其与美元之间的平衡趋势或许无法促使欧元兑美元跌至这一水平。
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