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周三(8月3日)因美国经济数据都有所向好，美元指数在持续下跌后企稳回升0.5%，至95.53，而周二一度触及六周低位。目前投资者在周五美国发布非农就业报告前轧平头寸，非农就业报告将有助于投资人判断美联储(FED)下次升息的时机。而欧元/美元回落跌至一周低位，欧元区经济数据表现好坏参半。
美元/日元从三周低位小幅反弹，投资者对进一步买入日元保持谨慎，此前日本财务省财务官浅川雅嗣加大对日元升势的口头干预，警告投机客勿推升日元上涨过快。
原油方面，连续两周的下跌使得市场积累了大量的净空头，虽然EIA显示原油库存增加，但汽油库存和库欣原油库存却录得大幅减少，库存数据的刺激使得投资者回补部分空头，支撑油价大涨4%。近日各大投行纷纷警告称，油价跌势过度，油价势将上行修正。
今日市场重点将关注英国央行(BOE)利率决议，英国央行将于北京时间周四19:00宣布政策决定，同时宣布央行政策委员会的投票情况和新的经济预测。目前市场广泛预计英国央行(BOE)在周四(8月4日)也将作出自2009年以来首次降息决定，目的是缓和英国脱欧全民公投所带来的影响。另外，市场投资者需谨防英国央行行长行长卡尼(Mark Carney)的讲话。
英银需要加码宽松？
目前英镑/美元震荡交投于1.3300关口上方，于近期低位1.2796触底反弹以来呈现筑底迹象，但两次上攻1.3500关口未果，短期将关注汇价能否进一步上攻这一水平。英国央行今日19:00将公布利率决定、会议纪要及季度通胀报告。不过，市场普遍预期该行降息，这也对英镑走势形成了打压。
然而，知名财经网(博客,微博)站Market Watch专栏作家马特·林恩(Matthew Lynn)周三撰文称，新一轮量化宽松会使英国经济陷入过热状态。
林恩指出，在英国脱欧公投之前，英国经济已经处于一个十分健康的状态。当政策制定者为运行良好的经济再加把火，就会造成经济过热。尽管在公投后出现了各种各样的警告，但英国真正的风险并不在于脱欧带来的经济衰退，而在于经济过热导致的经济崩溃。因此，最好的方法就是维持利率不变。
不管怎样，接受调查的52位经济学家中50位预测，英国央行货币政策委员会将自2009年以来首次下调关键利率。多数预计，该利率将下调25个基点，至纪录低点0.25%。
对其是否会重启QE，经济学家的观点不一，44位接受调查的经济学家有23位称，资产购买目标将维持在3750亿英镑不变。那些预计QE计划将扩大的预估增量在100亿1500亿英镑之间不等。此外，英国央行本周还可能有其它选项。
汇丰(HSBC)经济学家Simon Wells在给客户的报告中表示，预计央行本周会议上可能降息25个基点，但鉴于存在高度的不确定性，以及缺乏确凿的英国数据，所以并不认为英国央行在8月份会扩大QE或购买更多资产。
另外，知名财经网站Forexlive货币分析师Ryan Littlestone指出，当前英国脱欧仍是最大的不确定性因素，其长期实际影响无从得知；我认为英国央行应该采取行动但不应该一下用完全部弹药，当前最重要的事情是平复企业的恐慌情绪，因为很多企业的业务都设定在欧盟范围内，这仅靠英国央行宽松是难以实现的，必须得政府出面达成让投资者觉得脱欧也不会有很大变化的协议或谈判结果；此外，当前英国的经济也确实未糟糕到要大幅宽松的程度。
针对英镑走势展望，法国巴黎银行分析师指出，虽然英镑/美元本周二触及了该行做空英镑的止损价位1.3350，但该行依然相信汇价将于未来数周内重新走低，预计第三季度末将跌破1.30关口。
丹斯克银行分析师预计，无论最终结果是否满足市场预期，汇价均将走高，尤其是英国央行料将发布非常偏鸽派的政策声明，这将巩固市场对英国央行未来进一步扩大量化宽松的期望。丹斯克银行预期欧元/英镑将于1个月内触及0.86，而中期而言，3个月和6个月的汇价目标价位分别为0.88和0.90。
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