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美银美林预计到今年年底澳元兑美元因澳洲联储加息将升至0.7700；而高盛认为澳洲联储按兵不动将导致澳元下跌。
美元持续上扬导致澳元兑美元跌至10个月新低，掉期交易员目前预计澳洲联储在今年12月加息的概率为1/3，而美联储承诺继续加息。
周二(5月1日)澳洲联储保持现金利率在1.5%不变，为连续19个月按兵不动，因就业增长放缓，且通胀率仍徘徊于澳洲联储目标区间23%底部。汇价周二跌至0.7473，位6月以来的最低水平，目前位于0.7515。
彭博调查预计澳元兑美元到今年第四季度将触及0.7900。
美元重新上涨令部分策略师，如汇丰银行上调美元预期，而下调澳元预期。
以下是投资者和分析师的一系列评论：
美元牵引
美银美林的澳大利亚和新西兰经济与利率策略主管托尼·莫里斯(Tony Morriss)认为，由于其他央行似乎已经变得更加温和，最近几周美元确实已经获得了一些牵引力。根据BofAML目前的观点，截止至6月底澳元兑美元汇率将维持在0.75左右，年底前将回升至0.77。
莫里斯预计，澳元疲软将支持经济活动并推高通胀。在本周五公布的澳洲联储货币政策声明中，投资者应密切关注通胀预测。
低至0.68大关
Ardea投资管理公司负责人Tamar Hamlyn说，澳大利亚经济前景恶化或美国经济前景更加强劲，澳元兑美元汇率轻易跌破0.70，或许将触及0.68大关。与此相反，由于澳洲联储逐步改善经济以及下一步利率走高的最终交付，澳元兑美元汇率可能保持0.75以上。
现金利率和债券收益率之间较低的利率差异，可以会使离岸投资者削减对澳元的需求，而这些投资者曾被较高的澳洲收益率所吸引。我们倾向于认为澳元兑美元汇率在年底前会小幅走软，尤其是考虑到美联储加息的预期路径。
缺少催化剂
Kapstream Capital的基金经理雷蒙德李表示，即使是在抛售之前，澳元兑美元汇率在年底前将跌至0.70。我们并没有看到许多推动澳元在今年剩余时间内上涨的催化剂，尤其是在利率差异方面。
他预计澳洲联储今年不会加息。
另一方面是大宗商品和中国。中国表示未来几个季度GDP将增长6.8%。
雷蒙德李说：“中国经济增长高于预期将导致大宗商品价格大幅上涨，澳元兑美元汇率反弹至0.800.85区间。然而，我并没有看到这一趋势。”
很难看涨澳元
高盛资产管理公司亚太区固定收益主管菲利普·莫非特(Philip Moffitt)表示
很难看涨澳元，澳元兑美元汇率截止年底将跌至0.72。这将是一个相当不错的时期，经济增长缓慢但不会有太多的通货膨胀。
莫非特说，澳大利亚劳动力市场仍然疲软。把所有这些因素加在一起，澳大利亚在利率上落后美国几年。
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