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外界普遍预计，欧洲央行(ECB)将在周四(3月8日)召开会议时将利率及其政策声明保持不变，但有经济学家预计，声明措辞将会出现鹰派意外。这对于欧元多头而言将是重大利好。
欧洲央行(ECB)将于北京时间周四20:45公布利率决议；欧洲央行行长德拉基(Mario Draghi)将于北京时间21:30召开新闻发布会。
彭博3月2日对经济学家进行的一项调查发现，只有不到40%的人预计欧洲央行会调整其声明。
Pantheon Macroeconomics首席欧元区经济学家Claus Vistesen属于这些少数人中的一位。
Vistesen预计欧洲央行将维持利率不变，但他认为，决策者可能会取消下述政策声明措辞，即“如有必要，央行资产购买计划将在9月后持续”。
此举将表明，欧洲央行相信，即使今年退出量化宽松政策，通胀也将逼近央行设定的略低于2%的目标。若果真如此，可能会推动欧元大幅飙升。
欧洲央行在1月会议后称，从1月份起每月购债规模为300亿欧元，持续至今年9月，如有需要将延长。QE将一直持续到管委会认为通胀路径持续向目标水平调整为止。
Vistesen表示，为了保险起见，欧洲央行也将维持其承诺，即假如前景转坏则将增加QE，但有关资产购买计划将在第四季度结束的更加明确的表态，将是一个“应该不会扰乱市场”的鹰派信号。
他说，毕竟，人们已经普遍预期欧洲央行今年将缩减量化宽松计划，Vistesen预计欧银将在第四季度逐步缩减购债规模。
与Vistesen不同，巴克莱(Barclays)的经济学家则在多数阵营。他们预计，尽管呈现经济强势的进一步信号，但欧洲央行行长德拉基将继续保持耐心，预计欧洲央行不会对前瞻指引做出任何改变。
周三纽约时段，欧元/美元小幅升至1.2412，周二纽约尾盘报1.2404。
BK Asset Management外汇策略董事总经理Kathy Lien也表示，对声明是否会进行调整表示怀疑。她指出，自1月以来的数据显示，欧元区经济数据有所软化，尽管仍处于非常强劲的水平。
与此同时，欧元依然保持强劲，但自1月末以来，欧元并未显著升值，当时德拉基警告称，欧元波动造成了不确定性。
不过德拉基在1月新闻记者会上也发表鹰派言论，称经济加速增长超出预期，预计核心通胀将在中期逐步上扬。
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(欧元/美元走势图 )
Lien说道：“我们预计这些观点在本周会上不会发生改变，鉴于市场抛售美元的意愿，欧洲央行的乐观情绪应会令欧元/美元重返1.25。”
但Lien警告称，假如德拉基措辞听上去更加谨慎，欧元/美元走势可能会急剧反转，因为投机者显然倾向于德拉基会发表乐观言论。
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