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—北京时间周四(9月10日)05:00新西兰联储将公布利率决定，周二(9月8日)法国农业信贷(Credit Agricole)表示，市场广泛预期新西兰联储将再度降息。
该行认为，这可能是2014年中期新西兰联储开始将货币政策方向由紧缩转向宽松以来的第五次降息，隔夜指数掉期(OIS)市场对年底前其再度降息几率的计价逾50%，不过此次显然未计价在内。因此，此次预期的更新将对资本市场产生影响。
该行基本预期为，新西兰联储将调降经济增长前景，可能提升近期通胀预期。增长前景体现了经济的恶化，因内需下滑，且伴随着中国股市大跌及奶制品价格下跌。显而易见，新西兰6月奶制品价格同比下跌35%，对其经济造成巨大冲击。通胀方面，任何预期的更新将主要体现纽元走软的相关短期冲击。
并称，除预期的降息25点外，新西兰联储料不会承诺进一步降息，不过近期新西兰经济面临的风险，意味着其仍有非常大的可能会在2015年第四季度再度降息。
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