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全球知名投行法国兴业银行(601166,股吧)(Societe Generale)研究团队周三(3月15日)撰文就2018年第二季度进行前瞻，内容如下：
首先，该行列出全球7大主要关注的主题：
1、欧洲央行前瞻指引变化即将来临；
2、美国依旧维持中期看空的观点；
3、日本资产：多元化收益的最佳投资点；
4、积极的股市/债券相关性，意味着存在保护需求；
5、第一个裂缝开始出现，需要注意杠杠；
6、英国资产：处于艰难处境；
7、今年低概率事件有可能获得动力。
就以上方面，该行做出以下具体分析：
首先，欧洲央行前瞻指引改变即将到来这方面，我们认为，在欧洲央行加强指导之前，重新配置欧洲资产是必要的。
其次，美元方面，我们仍维持多年看空美元的观点。该观点在未来几周将受到对美联储收紧路径的进一步定价以及通胀预期上升的支持。但是，因通胀很快筑顶，美国双赤字上升、11月中期选举前的政治不确定性上升，以及贸易战/保护主义升级的前景都可能会令美元承压。
从价值上来说，美元还有进一步下跌的空间。
另外，英国退欧的僵局最终会以某种方法结束：在英国退欧的最后期限2019年3月29日之前，做多英镑的波动性上升。
交易建议方面，法国兴业银行表示，由于美国标普500指数今年的回报率一般，我们建议重新分配到以下市场，拥有更高的股票风险溢价和结构性改革，如欧元区和日本。
该行称，我们建议进一步削减美元敞口。我们通过提高日元敞口来增加投资组合的保护。我们保持对新兴市场（12%）和大宗商品货币（卢布和挪威克朗）的较高敞口。
该行建议，做多欧元/美元，做空美元/日元。
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