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财经报社(伦敦)讯 三菱日联研究部周一（12月7日）讨论了对于本周四举行的欧洲央行12月份货币政策会议的预期。
主要观点
欧洲央行本周将会重新校对其工具，尽管我们认为其公布的结果不会大幅改变，但我们可能看到PEPP提升5000亿欧元，这将延伸货币刺激的程度，直至2021年年底。然而，1200亿欧元额外的APP将在本月底到期，PEPP的总规模上涨可能达到6000亿欧元，以确保现有的量化宽松脚步可以被保持。TLTRO也将添加至2021年日程，可能与目前条款相同（可能利率1.0%）。我们预期存款利率将保持在0.5%。
欧元的REER指标稍高于五年平均水平，保持在200809年高位下方的13%左右，因此目前不会对欧元的走强预期做重大调整。欧元的升值显然会导致通货紧缩，但我们看到最有可能的是欧元的走势对货币政策产生影响。降息将是最有效的，但在目前阶段不太可能。我们不预期本周会发生任何巨大的意外，因此欧元将受到良好支撑，预计在1.20001.2500区域内交易。
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