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周五(3月9日)市场将迎来日本央行决议及美国非农报告。此次央行决议前，欧元/日元走势备受关注。
在日本，我们看到的情况与去年欧元区的情况相似，一个全面的量化宽松计划终于开始与经济增长和通胀上升保持一致。
仅在几周前，我们看到日本1月通胀已经触及34个月高点。
到目前为止，日本央行并没有表现出减少鸽派的意愿，这与去年围绕欧元的情形类似，因欧洲央行仍保持宽松和被动，只是现在开始对他们的声明做出微妙的改变。
但是，正如欧元去年的强势一样，在通胀数据上升时，日元已经找到买盘，这意味着市场参与者开始偏向日本央行在未来某个时刻变得不那么鸽派。
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（美元/日元周图）
受上述形势影响，欧元/日元走势尤为有趣。欧元的强势在2月前几乎是无处不在的，但在2月出现了一种看空逆转，且这种逆转仍未结束。与此同时，日元汇率也出现了变化，日元此前一直是一种相当弱势的货币，因为日本央行离撤出经济刺激计划还差得很远。
不过随着通胀的上升，出现了日本央行变得不那么鸽派的预期。
在通胀数据触及34个月高点后，日内将迎来日本央行决议，如果日银未能重新令日元恢复疲弱，那么做空欧元/日元在短期内仍具有吸引力。
北京时间3月8日08:18，欧元/日元报130.89/99。
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