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近期相对于黄金，白银的表现相对低迷，但有知名分析师表示，假如历史可以作为指引的话，投资者应该做好白银即将爆发的准备。
Albright Investment Group创始人Victor Dergunov在Seeking Alpha网站撰文称，历史表明，在新一轮牛市开始时，白银相对于黄金往往表现不佳。
Dergunov发表上述言论之际，白银价格继续徘徊在四个月交易区间的底部附近。周一，5月白银期货交易价格交投于16.44美元/盎司附近；与此同时，6月份黄金期货位于1313.40美元/盎司附近。
他补充说，他认为有三个重要因素最终将推动银价表现远超黄金。他预计银价最终将突破50美元/盎司。
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(图片：Kitco、财经网)
Dergunov在文章中写道：“银价将上涨，它将涨得高得多，可能会超过以前的高点，并永久性地处于一个高得多的交易水平。”
Dergunov表示，处于高位的黄金/白银比率是他看好白银的第一个原因。
尽管黄金也在交易区间底部附近，但黄金/白银比率仍然徘徊在多年高点附近。Kitco.com的价格数据显示，这一比率略低于80。而历史平均水平在50左右。
他说：“在过去的20年里，每当这个比率达到80，就与白银价格的一个重大底部相吻合。”
Dergunov补充说，随着通胀压力开始攀升，他预计银价也会走高。
他指出，上个月，美国政府公布的消费者物价指数显示，通胀年率为2.4%，核心通胀率为2.1%，均高于美联储2%的目标。
Dergunov说道：“一旦通胀变得”火热”，我们相信投资者可能很快就会加速积累白银。”
不仅通胀压力在增加，Dergunov也警告说，美联储将继续落后于通胀曲线。他解释说，面对更高的通胀，美联储不能过快提高利率，因为这可能对经济增长产生负面影响。
美联储(FED)上周三(5月2日)宣布利率将维持在1.5%至1.75%，这一点符合市场普遍预期。
联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)在会后声明中表示：“预计以12个月为基础的通胀率将在中期内接近委员会2%的对称目标，委员会预计经济形势发展将支持联邦基金利率的进一步逐步上调。”对许多经济学家来说，这暗示美联储愿意看见通胀短期内高于其目标。
Dergunov对银价持乐观前景的第三个理由是美元走软。尽管美元近期大涨，并触及年内最高水平，但Dergunov表示，他仍预计美元处于长期下行趋势。
他表示，美元将面临几个重大挑战。不断攀升的双赤字以及日益加剧的通胀都可能对美元未来的走势产生重大影响。
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