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据彭博社报道，随着世界上众多石油类商品货币与油价间的相关性逐渐减弱，美元正再度与油价建立起了不应有的正相关性！
如下图所示，自10月25日以来，原油价格已累计上涨了逾9%，而同期美元兑一篮子货币指数则上涨了1.4%，两者之间的90天相关性系数升至了近两年的最高水平。与此同时，油价和俄罗斯和加拿大等主要石油生产国货币之间的联系则越来越弱。
通常而言，由于油价以美元为计价货币，因此美元走强时油价将趋于下跌，两者理应呈现反向关联。但当前的基本面背景，似乎正驱使这一逻辑不再有效。
彭博社表示，近期美元走强主要受到了积极的经济数据和对税改的预期刺激。而原油最近的飙升部分是由于沙特政治局势动乱所带来的原油供给收缩预期。
纽约梅隆银行(BNY Mellon Corp.)资深外汇策略师尼尔·梅洛(Neil Mellor)表示：“油价与美元同向波动的情况通常较为罕见。”
梅洛指出，“当前出现这一局面的部分原因是由于中东地缘局势的不确定性所驱动，推动油价上涨。在一些特定背景下，当供给因素占主导地位时，美元走势对油价的影响力可能较以往出现弱化。”
值得一提的是，在美元与油价正相关性愈发凸显前，环球外汇10月下旬时就和投资者介绍过，商品货币与油价关联性已经在明显减弱。最新的数据显示，俄罗斯卢布与布伦特原油30天的关联度已降至负值，而加元和挪威克朗与大宗商品的90天关联度则处于2014年以来的最低水平。
机构Pavilion Global Markets在今年7月时曾表示，美国原油产量的激增促使人们认为，美元已经具备了部分石油货币的属性。而美国从最大的石油消费国转变为最大的石油生产国，很有可能会在未来彻底颠覆全球资本的流动规律。
（责任编辑： HN666）
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