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随着全球能源供应紧缩导致燃料价格飞涨，世界第二大经济体中国正面临一个电力短缺严重的冬天。极端天气、能源需求激增和煤炭使用的严格限制给中国国家电网带来了三重打击。这不仅会阻碍中国经济复苏的步伐，也会给全球贸易带来压力。
尽管中国在过去一年中努力储存燃料，但仍然面临着没有足够的煤炭和天然气用于供给。在未来几个月气温将变冷，供暖需求激增，这可能会引发电力配给更加紧张。能源短缺可能对中国工业造成严重破坏，加剧阻碍经济增长。在最坏的情况下，尽管分析人士表示，政府会牺牲工厂产量来维持住宅供应。
彭博新能源财经分析师魏汉阳在一封邮件中写到：“中国整个2021年夏季，煤炭燃料供应一直吃紧，而且尚未缓解，在冬天临近的日子里，中国东南部的一些省份很可能会遇到另一波电力短缺。”
本周早些时候，高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)将其对亚洲煤炭基准价格从原有10月至12月的预测几乎翻了一番。部分原因是北亚液化天然气的现货价格比去年上涨了五倍，并且处于有史以来的最高季节性价格水平。IHS Markit Ltd.分析师Lara Dong表示：“如果煤炭和天然气价格在即将到来的冬季保持高位，中国电力紧缩的风险将很高。”
这是自2011年以来中国面临最严重的能源短缺，中国在电力紧缺的情况下，通常会首先削减工业电力以确保民用电供应。中国已经在削减工厂用电以实现中国政府提出的减少污染的目标，随着中国进入冬季，迫在眉睫的电力危机可能会加剧工厂停工。尽管中国政府表示正在加快煤炭库存的积累，并且要求公用事业公司要做好准备以确保电力供应，但迫在眉睫的危机还是发生了。一些液化天然气进口商在价格飙升后，已大幅缩减采购计划。
Great Gas高级天然气分析师王小坤表示：“如果能源负担不起，很多工厂宁愿在冬天关闭。”
