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欧洲央行(ECB)和日本央行(BOJ)将分别于周四和周五公布货币政策决议，投资者将寻找任何有关这两家央行何时退出刺激措施的最新线索。有外汇分析师表示，在这两大央行利率决议来临之际，做空欧元/日元可能是非常不错的交易策略。
彭博周四最新撰文称，欧洲央行和日本央行都不希望货币政策危及各自的经济复苏，令欧元、日元承压，而最新的“鸽派大战”令欧元面临比日元更大的下行压力。
北京时间周四19:45，欧洲央行(ECB)将公布利率决议；北京时间周四20:30，欧洲央行行长德拉基(Mario Draghi)将召开新闻发布会。
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(图片：Poundsterlinglive、财经网)
市场普遍预计欧洲央行不会在此次会议上做出主要的政策变化。但是，有关结束QE刺激和未来升息的潜在时机的进一步指引仍是关注焦点。鹰派的措辞对近期备受苦难的欧元来说将构成利好，而鸽派的论调可能会进一步施压欧元。
欧洲央行在3月份声明措辞中放弃了宽松倾向，该央行此前曾表示，如果经济恶化，将再次增加资产购买计划。
眼下许多分析机构认为，欧洲央行很有可能在本周会议上发出鸽派论调。
汇丰(HSBC)经济学家表示，投资者应为欧洲央行在本周会议上发表鸽派信息做好准备。他们指出，令人失望的数据和更广泛的担忧可能会让央行保持警觉。
荷兰国际集团(ING)称，欧洲央行4月政策会议对于欧元走势非常关键，鉴于欧元区经济指标走弱、相对脆弱的地缘政治背景，投资者目前似乎正在为“鸽派”德拉基做准备。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)外汇策略师Hans Redeker表示，鉴于近期公布的较弱的经济数据，欧洲央行本次会议给到了德拉基对此前强势欧元予以打击的机会。
日本央行将于北京时间周五11:00左右公布利率决议及政策声明。
(图片：日本央行、财经网)
美银美林(BofAML)周三发布客户报告称，市场和该行的经济学家均认为此次的日本央行会议不会有重大变化。
瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)外汇分析师Sireen Harajli表示，德拉基可能强调需要谨慎行事，因为在欧银考虑何时结束购债措施之际，欧元区增长显现放缓迹象。与此形成对比，多数交易员和经济学家早已打消日本央行今年调整政策的预期。
Harajli认为，这让欧元/日元的风险偏于下行，并可能测试一年来的支撑水平129。周四亚市早盘，欧元/日元报133.08附近。
Harajli在接受彭博采访时说道：“假设欧洲央行在会议结束后展现更鸽派的立场，而日本央行维持正常立场不变，仍无重大变化，那么我预计欧元/日元会有所下滑，至少在短期内如此。”
Harajli预计，第二季度末欧元/日元料跌至129.32，年底料位于131附近。
(欧元/日元走势图 )
日本央行行长黑田东彦(Haruhiko Kuroda)周一接受CNBC采访时，日本央行必须继续“非常强有力的宽松货币政策”，直到达到2%的通胀目标。他希望在2019财年实现这一目标。
Harajli说道：“欧洲和日本的区别在于，欧洲的基本面总是强于日本。”
瑞穗预计，欧洲央行将在6、7月份宣布明年之前结束购债的计划，这将在下半年支持欧元。
对于日本央行决议，Ueda Harlow驻东京外汇保证金交易首席经理Toshiya Yamauchi指出，焦点在于央行新任副行长若田部昌澄将如何投票，有一些人猜测他会倾向于加大刺激力度，从而导致日元走软；假如唯一的反对者是片冈刚士，则日元或许会获得买盘，因为若田部昌澄将被视为接受当前政策框架。
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