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上周油价大涨，触及两年高位，并接近60美元关口，越来越多证据显示需求强劲增长，而且伊拉克库尔德地区独立公投令投资者担忧石油出口，这些因素刺激了买盘。
布伦特油价自6月份以来涨幅已经高达30%左右，油价能否持续上涨？
普遍的观点是，石油市场比2014年以来的任何时候都看起来更健康，OPEC和俄罗斯继续通过减产收紧供应；油价处于低位，强劲的全球经济增长刺激石油需求。
即使自2014年以来，由于供应过剩增加的库存终于开始下降，但石油多头依然保持紧张。该行业的不确定因素仍然是美国页岩油。
原油价格稳定在50美元/桶以上，令人担忧的是页岩油生产商的产量增速将比目前更快，而OPEC成员则可能会试图让更多石油进入市场。美国要求各方保持冷静，土耳其阻挠伊拉克库尔德石油出口的威胁可能不会形成太大的利好。
所以尽管油价可能正在反弹，但决不是一味的单向押注。
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